The 10 Senate seats most likely to fall in 2022 | CNN Politics (2023)

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Senate elections are generally only held every two years, except sometimes three years in a row.

the democrats tooktwo seatsin November 2020. They won two more in the Georgia runoff in January 2021. And in 2022, they will fight to retain control of the equal chamber where Vice President Kamala Harris is the swing vote.

But the battle for control is already taking center stage as Congress, and the 50-50 Senate in particular, help shape its success.President Joe Bidenwill be in the process of adopting its agenda. Democrats are looking to increase their majority so they can pass legislation with a more comfortable margin, while Republicans want to win back the Senate so they can scrutinize Biden's White House.

History is on the Republican side. The party that loses the presidency usually wins seats in the midterm elections. At least numerically, Republicans are more likely to be on the defensive in 2022: Of the 34 Senate seats next year, Republicans will defend 20 to Democrats' 14. "Battlefields" ofInside Elections con Nathan L. Gonzales.

The seat most likely to revert party control next fall is in Pennsylvania, currently held by Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who, according to CNN's inaugural rankingsnot stand for re-election. The top 10 Senate seats most likely to tip are based on CNN reporting, as well as historical data on state and candidate performance. As the cycle heats up, search data, fundraising, and ad spend also become important factors.

In this first edition, the first 10 seats will be divided equally between the seats of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. There are three vacant seats on the ticket, all of which are currently being filled by retired Republicans, making his seats more competitive than they otherwise would be.

Regardless of the historical precedent, it is important to consider the seating plan in question. In 2018, for example, Democrats won the House of Representatives by capitalizing on anti-President Donald Trump's power in the suburbs, two years after his election. But the Senate was a different story: Republicans won seats because Democratic senators ran for re-election in rural red states where Trump had won.

In this cycle, only one senator is running for re-election in a state contested by the opposing party's 2020 presidential candidate: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson. His seat in Wisconsin is the third most likely to be upset, but the two-term senator is the most vulnerable Republican candidate.

Some of the states on this list will look familiar to you. Not too long ago, Georgia was at the epicenter of the political universe, helping to hand over the White House and the Senate to the Democrats. Expect the Peach State to be a big player again in 2022, as Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock runs for a full six-year term and control of the Senate is once again on the line. Among the other states that were hotly contested in the 2020 cycle and are back on this list are Arizona, North Carolina, and Colorado.

But long before the "Magic Wall" is coded in reds and blues, intraparty infighting will dominate much of the news in 2021, and next year's nomination races will go a long way to determine how Some of these general elections will be competitive. . will finish. be. The Senate primaries, as soon as they are, are becoming a leading indicator of where each party's base is headed. This is especially true for Republicans who publicly wrestle with the way the GOP looks like Trump outside of the White House.

The former president may have left Washington, and in unorthodox fashion, becoming the first president to be impeached twice, but his grip on the Republican Party was on display at the annual event.Conservative Political Action Conferencein Orlando last weekend. It was all about himgolden statueand all that. And even if his winning percentage wasn't impressive (55%) in the unscientific poll, the rhetoric used by his acolytes and other 2024 prospects was a nod to "Trumpism," a noun the former president used in the scenario to definehis first public statementssince he left the White House.

Trump lists all the Republicans who voted to impeach him in the House or convict him in the Senate, singled out to weed them out of his most loyal opponents. Herecently confirmeda former aide running against one of the House Republicans and, if you are considering starting onesuper pac, you are indicating that you can invest in additional careers with more than just endorsements.

It remains to be seen to what extent Trump will engage and support candidates at odds with the Republican leadership in the Senate. But he could be a factor in Senate races like those in Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina, where GOP officials, two of whom voted to convict him, are not seeking re-election.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is the only Republican senator who has voted to condemn Trump, who is running for re-election next year, but he threatened her before the vote. And the moderate Republican proved in 2010 that she can lose a primary (and the support of Republican leaders) and still win the general election as a candidate. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell vowed Monday that national Republicanswill be with her. In Murkowski's favor, this cycle could also be a new "top four" system in the state, with all candidates competing together in a nonpartisan primary and the top four advancing to the general election, where voters rank their preferences. For all these reasons, despite Trump's threats against Murkowski, Alaska is nowhere near this list of seats most likely to capsize.

A few other Republican-controlled states could eventually receive honorable mentions. Right now, Iowa's only chance to become competitive is for 87-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley to retire. He still hasn't said what he's doing. But also Joni Ernst, the state's junior Republican senator, who held one of the most coveted seats last year, was re-elected with more than 6 points.

Similarly, Missouri appears to have solidified since Republican Sen. Roy Blunt defeated Democrat Jason Kander by less than 3 points in 2016, a presidential year. One of his early Democratic opponents.started his campaignthat year, mainly criticizing the other senator from Missouri (Josh Hawley, who opposed the confirmation of Biden's election victory) and trying to link Blunt to him.

The 10 seats below are ranked from most to least likely to roll over. But it's still early in the cycle, with ever-changing field of candidates, so be sure to check out the upcoming CNN Rankings to see how things have changed.

1. Pennsylvania

Headliner: Republican Pat Toomey (retired)

Toomey's announcement that he will not seek re-election makes that state even more competitive than it otherwise would be. Biden's victory here was a change from four years ago, when Trump narrowly won Keystone State in 2016. That same year, Toomey was re-elected by less than 2 points, defeating a heavily supported Democratic candidate. but he was not the strongest. Activist. As with all vacant seats, the contours of this dispute will depend on who stands in the election and who wins each party's nomination. on the democratic sideLieutenant Governor John Fetterman, who finished third in the 2016 Senate primary, is the biggest name. The tattooed former mayor of Braddock, a working-class city east of Pittsburgh, sells himself as a progressive who can appeal to voters who saw something in Trump. While his campaign is already hosting big fundraisers, he won't have the field to himself. State Assemblyman Malcolm Kenyatta, a replacement for Biden during the 2020 campaign, has announced his candidacy and others, including members of the congressional delegation, could soon follow. Kenyatta was the first member of color to identify as gay in the state legislature. Without Toomey in the race, the Republican side is wide open and could attract a host of candidates from across the spectrum of Trump allegiance, including prominent Trump critics like moderate former Representatives Charlie Dent and Ryan Costello.

2. georgia

Title: Democrat Raphael Warnock

It's time to talk about Georgia again! Warnockwon this placeEarlier this year, she defeated senator candidate Kelly Loeffler in a special runoff election to fill former Sen. Johnny Isakson's seat. Warnock made history in January by becoming the first black senator from the Peach State and, along with Sen. Jon Ossoff, who won the state Senate runoff, he turned the camera around after Biden became thefirst democrat in 28 yearstake the state. Warnock is running for a full six-year term beginning in 2022. Resources may not pour into Georgia as much as when it was a presidential battleground or when there were simultaneous Senate runoffs, but the underlying factors that made that the state was competitive in 2020 will not disappear. The Atlanta suburbs are still changing, attracting diverse and well-educated voters who turn to the Democrats. And all eyes are on Stacey Abrams to run for governor again, which would energize the black voters Democrats need to participate in their winning coalition. on the republican sideFormer Sen. David Perdue now says he's not runningBut Loeffler, who recently launched a PAC aimed at registering conservative voters, is considering it, as is former Rep. Doug Collins, whose candidacy pushed Loeffler to the right last year when he failed to reach a runoff. Everyone handles the losses, but the Republicans feel more comfortable on their bench here than in other offensive opportunities. As 2020 has shown, Georgia is a development state, but it may not be as pro-Democratic when it's not a presidential year, and Republicans feel they still have some clout with suburban voters when Trump isn't on the ballot. What role the former president could play in this race remains to be seen, but Republicans hope he stops attacking the state's voting system, which may have diminished Republican turnout.

3. Wisconsin

Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson

Johnson has not said whether he will run for re-election, and it is unclear which decision would give Republicans the best chance of retaining the seat. If he withdraws, this race could become more competitive for Democrats as an open race, though Republicans are confident they have a strong seat here. And if Johnson stays, he's vulnerable as he finished 2020 with just over half a million dollars in the bank and heads into 2021 with a tendency to sayconspiracy stuffonethe 2020 electionsand its consequences (includingsurveywhether the attack on the United States Capitol was an armed insurrection). The two-year senator appears to see some political benefit in meeting with the former president, but that may not be the most viable path to re-election in a state Biden won from Trump last fall. In 2016, Johnson dashed the comeback hopes of former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, beating him by about 3 points in a race many observers hastily dismissed as a Democratic comeback. Whether Johnson stays or goes, the Democrats have a good chance of winning the seat, though their field is still fledgling. Milwaukee Bucks manager Alex Lasry is running, as is Outagamie County manager Tom Nelson, a former lieutenant gubernatorial candidate who lost a 2016 House bid.

4. North Carolina

Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retired)

Trump's victory here last fall along withthe re-election of Senator Thom Tillis, showed that there is still a lot of red in this violet state. But with Burr not running for re-election, Democrats have a better chance of flipping his seat. Again a lot depends on itwho are the candidates, but would-be Republican candidates are already tripping over each other trying to criticize Burr's surprise vote to convict Trump in his impeachment trial. Former Rep. Mark Walker, who declined to seek re-election in 2020 after his House district was redrawn, announced last fall that he would run for the Republican nomination, but many others are eligible, including former Gov. McCrory, the Republican chairman. from the state party Michael Whatley, current members of the congressional delegation and even the former president's daughter-in-law, Lara Trump. A Trump-style candidate may reveal his base, but it may also alienate voters in the booming suburban areas that have made that state competitive and allowed Democrats to win other statewide races. Democratic State Sen. Jeff Jackson is running, as is State Sen. Erica Smith, who tried to support the Republicans in the 2020 Senate primary because they believed she would make a poor candidate in the general election. The Democratic field is likely to grow much larger.

5.Arizona

Incumbent: Democrat Mark Kelly

Kelly won in November,Victory over Republican Martha McSallyto fill out the remainder of the term of the late Senator John McCain. And like Warnock in Georgia, Kelly must now run for a six-year term in one state.Biden turned blue. This race ranks lower on the list of seats most likely to tip over than Georgia because it's harder to see Republicans aggressively challenging Kelly, who they admit has run a strong campaign and is an impressive fundraiser. . Having lost two straight Senate races, McSally can't strike the delicate balance of appealing to Trump's base without upsetting suburban women, and there's no obvious bank of viable candidates waiting in the wings. Arizona Republicans are deeply divided over those who oppose Trumpcensored by the state party, which is now led by loyal Trump nominee and failed Senate nominee Kelli Ward. Among those censured is Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, who has said he is not running for the Senate. However, he has plenty of time to change his mind before the filing deadline, and if he does, this race could look more competitive for Republicans.

6.Nevada

Amtsinhaberin: Democratina Catherine Cortez Masto

Cortez Masto was elected to her first term in 2016, beating Republican Joe Heck by about 2 points to become thefirst Latin American senator. She then headed the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, which would equip her with the contacts and fundraising skills to run a strong advocacy campaign. While Democrats have done well here in recent years after Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen ousted Republican Dean Heller in 2018, the Silver State remains a competitive area that Democrats shouldn't take for granted. Biden carried the state by just over 2 points.

7. New Hampshire

Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan

Hassan, a former two-term governor, narrowly won her seat in 2016, defeating Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte, while Hillary Clinton also carried the state by less than one point. Four years later, Biden carried the state by 7 points, while Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen won a third term by nearly 16 points. All of this makes New Hampshire look like a state that is sinking into the blue. But either Ayotte orGobernador Chris SununuIt could make this race competitive if they decide to race, and if they do, they'll move up the reversible seat list. Sununu said he will "watch" the race, but he wants to go through the legislative session (which ends in June) first. His ambivalence could put other Republicans out of business until he decides what might be good for Hassan. But his potential candidacy is a threat Democrats take seriously.

8. Ohio

Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retired)

Trump's strength in Ohio (he led the state by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020) is a clear indication of his partisan leanings. But with Portman announcing that in Januarywill not seek a third term, the Democrats have a better chance of turning the chair. (Portman recently won re-election by more than 20 points, defeating former Gov. Ted Strickland, who has been branded a DC liberal.) On the Democratic side, some of the biggest names to watch include Rep. Tim Ryan, the candidatea short-lived presidential campaign in 2020and has long been mocked for walking the state, and Amy Acton, former state health director. But it's the Republican primary that is generating the most drama so far, with the biggest names openly vying for Trump's endorsement as they try to link up with former Republican Gov. John Kasich, a well-known Trump critic who supported the Biden meeting. Former Treasurer Josh Mandelembraced Trump's rhetoricabout a stolen election and attacked Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, a member of the delegation that voted for impeachment. Mandel twice attempted to knock out the state's other senator, Democrat Sherrod Brown, but he lost in 2012 and dropped out in 2018, despite having nearly $4 million left for that contest. Meanwhile, former State Party leader Jane Timken, who is part of a wealthy steel family, launched her campaign with a video filled with photos of her and Trump. "I cleaned the house from the Kasich establishment," she says. She is now all over Gonzalez and this week is urging him to resign. She would be Ohio's first female senator, and some Republicans like the idea of ​​a Harvard-educated woman with Trump credibility campaigning in the suburbs.

9. Florida

Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio

As in Ohio, Trump's victory here confirmed many people's belief that Florida is a tough state for Democrats, even if the Republican margins are narrower here. But unlike the Buckeye State, the incumbent Republican Party is close. Rubio last won re-election in 2016 (after dropping out of the presidential primary) by about 8 points, and since then Republican Sen. Rick Scott, chairman of the Senate National Republican Committee this cycle, has ousted Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Any initial threats against Rubio from the Trump flank appear to have dissipated with Ivanka Trump, the former president's daughter, he said.she will not oppose you, but other challenges may arise. Democrats to watch include Rep. Val Demings and Stephanie Murphy, both of whom have compelling personal stories that can help win over different voters. Murphy, co-chair of the moderate Blue Dog Coalitionan audition touron issues last week, which is generally code for testing the waters of a campaign, but he said he could also weather a Senate race in 2024.

10.Colorado

Incumbent: Democrat Michael Bennet

After Biden's nearly 14-point victory here last fall and Democrat John Hickenlooper's loss to Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, Colorado looks like a blue state. Gardner has been one of the most vulnerable incumbents throughout the 2020 cycle, struggling to appeal to moderates and please Trump's base. In an apparent attempt to appear impartial, one of his ads even included a photo of Bennet supporting his opponent. Now it's Bennett's turn to run for re-election. And despite these recent victories, Democrats are not taking this race for granted in a state that still has many conservative neighborhoods. Bennett is known as an intellectual legislator but gained national attention foran impassioned speech in the SenateHe criticized Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who went viral in 2019. He ran briefly for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, but while some of his more moderate voices set him apart from other candidates, he failed to gain ground or take hold. He was first nominated for that seat in 2009 and then won a full term in 2010 by defeating Ken Buck, now a Republican congressman who said he won't run for the Senate this year. The Democrat didn't face many challenges in 2016, with observers writing the runoff off of him well before the end. But in the end he won re-election by only about 6 points. And while Colorado has turned blue in the past six years, Bennet's relatively narrow lead in 2016 is one reason not to cross this race off the list just yet.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story misrepresented Pat Toomey's title in one instance. He is a senator from Pennsylvania.